A Fistful of Euros: US Trade Numbers Are In (And So Are China's...)

Edward at A Fistful of Euros thinks the dollar will hold and the euro looks to be in trouble. Also:

...I wish someone who really knew about this would write something, but my educated guess is that Chinese import penetration in Europe is now big and getting bigger by the month. Hence the row about globalisation in the French referendum. Basically what I am saying is that having this kind of issue in the Free Trade US of A is one thing, having it in the more anti-globalisation European core is going to be quite another. China the global imbalance to end all (im)balances.

[snip]

I think what people need to get their minds round is the immensity of all this. We are talking about an economy which could be five times the size of the US one when it is all up and running, which is of course years away, but I’m sure you get the point. And as we run up to these levels of economic activity, then fluctuations in capacity, and output, and prices will be large, and the financial consequences of these fluctuations will be too....